A new report by JMK Research and the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has pointed out that India will fall well short of its 100GW Generator Solar Portable solar capacity target by 2022, due to the underwhelming growth of rooftop PV.
The report expects a 25GW shortfall in reaching the 40GW rooftop solar target by December 2022, compared with a utility-scale solar target of just 1.8GW.
As of December 2021, India has accumulated 55GW of PV, with grid-connected utility-scale projects contributing 77% (42.3GW), with the remainder coming from grid-connected rooftop solar (20%) and micro or micro off-grid projects (3%). By 2022, India is expected to add another 19GW of PV capacity, 15.8GW of utilities and 3.5GW of rooftop solar. This will bring cumulative utility-scale PV capacity to 58.2GW and cumulative rooftop solar capacity to 15GW by the end of December.
"Even with this addition of capacity, about 27% of India's 100GW solar target will not be met," said Jyoti Gulia, founder of JMK Research.
On its current trajectory, India will deviate from its solar target of 300GW by 2030 by about 86GW, the report found.
It is reported that the report proposes short-term and long-term measures to put India back on track to achieve its solar targets. Short-term measures include uniform policy across the country for at least the next five years, consistent regulations for net metering and banking facilities, and removal of restrictions on renewable energy banks at least until national targets for rooftop and open access are achieved; long-term measures These include stricter enforcement of renewable energy purchase obligations; improved financial health of distribution companies and possible privatization; lower cross-subsidized surcharges for commercial and industrial consumers; and capital subsidies for battery storage systems.
The government is also likely to aggressively push to accelerate solar generation in the near term, with a target of 100GW by 2022, reallocating the unmet rooftop target to utility-scale generation.
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